More than a decade after it became the world’s first mainstream battery-electric vehicle, the Nissan Leaf has become something of an afterthought for EV buyers. But while some industry watchers expected the little hatchback to be phased out during the next few years, Nissan insiders insist they’ll evolve, rather than eliminate their entry-level offering.
The 2023 Nissan Leaf brings a number of updates, both inside and out, while the automaker has also repositioned the nameplate as a “value proposition,” a more affordable option to the larger, longer-range Ariya SUV coming to U.S. showrooms later this year.
But there’s an even more dramatic transformation coming, with a complete redesign set to arrive around mid-decade based on the Nissan Chill-Out Concept unveiled last autumn, TheDetroitBureau.com has confirmed. What’s not locked in stone is the fate of the Leaf nameplate. For the moment, it remains on the books, though several insiders cautioned that it could yet be replaced if it’s not seen to hold much stock with consumers.
An evolution in the making
Expect so see the Leaf go through a significant “evolution,” said one well-placed source, “because you have to react to where customers are in the market.”
In the first few years after its launch for the 2011 model year, the Leaf blazed a unique path. It was the first mainstream, all-electric vehicle and had little competition. Demand grew steadily, hitting a peak of 30,200 in the 2014 calendar year. But, capable of barely 100 miles per charge, the Nissan BEV began losing momentum as the first long-range battery-electric vehicle, the Tesla Model S, made its debut. By 2019, U.S. demand hit a low point of just 3,636.
Leaf’s fortunes have improved a bit, the hatchback riding on the surge in demand for EVs overall. In 2021, American motorists purchased 14,239 of the Nissan EVs, Leaf’s best year since 2015. But this year it hasn’t come close to keeping up with the battery-electric market — which is up about 65%, according to Cox Automotive. Leaf sales actually dipped about 1.4% during the first half of 2022, to 7,622.
In 2023, the Japanese automaker hopes the much-delayed Ariya will help it start catching up to the competitors who now dominate BEV demand — including not only Tesla, but Ford, Hyundai, Kia and General Motors. It’s not only bigger than Leaf, but far more lavishly equipped. And it will offer range of as much as 300 miles per charge.
An affordable BEV
But, starting at just over $46,000, the 2023 Nissan Ariya will compete in a more rarified segment. And Nissan is convinced there’s going to be a solid market for more affordable BEVs — a position echoed by Bank of America analyst John Murphy.
During a presentation of his annual “Car Wars” study in Detroit late last month, Murphy warned that demand for electric vehicles could be stunted if automakers don’t rein in fast-rising prices.
So, while Tesla has increased the cost of its typical vehicle by as much as $6,000 this year, Nissan trimmed the price of the 2023 Leaf by anywhere from $4,245 to $6,545 depending upon the trim package. The base Leaf S now starts at $28,375. Only the entry version of the Chevrolet Bolt EV is more affordable. And that’s before factoring in the $7,500 in federal tax credits still available for Nissan customers. The EV incentives phased out for GM, once it passed a sales threshold set by Congress.
The Leaf S offers a relatively modest 150 miles range, and even the costlier SV Plus remains on the low side of the market at 215 miles per charge.
Chilling Out
Whether those figures will be increased in future versions remains to be seen. In fact, Nissan has yet to offer any concrete details about where it is going, other than to say it isn’t planning to walk away from the affordable niche the various versions of the Leaf now occupy.
“With EVs projected to be 40% of Nissan’s U.S. sales volume by 2030, we will offer a lineup of electric vehicles in a variety of segments to meet the growing demands of American customers,” spokesman Brian Brockman told TheDetroitBureau.com.
But Nissan offered a hint of what is in the works last November when it rolled out four electrified concept vehicles, including the Chill-Out show car widely expected to serve as a prototype for the next-generation entry BEV.
A “mobile haven”
“A new way to think about mobility, Nissan Chill-Out is a mobile haven,” the automaker said last year. Reflecting the fast-declining sales of sedans, coupes and hatchbacks, Chill-Out adopts a sleek crossover body style that picks up key design cues from the larger, more expensive Ariya.
It offers a more up-to-date — and roomier — cabin. And it’s powered by Nissan’s new e-4orce dual-motor all-wheel-drive system. Migrating to a new architecture shared with other BEVs being developed for the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi Alliance, a production Chill-Out should deliver better performance, handling — and, quite likely, range — than the existing Leaf.
The timing of the new version is uncertain. The current schedule appears to be aimed at a 2025 model year introduction. But, as Ariya underscores, Nissan has had trouble holding to some of its schedules.
The other big question is whether the production model will retain the Leaf name.
“As of July 14, 2022 the name, Leaf, is not dead,” said one insider, adding he “can’t guarantee it won’t go away.” That was echoed by another person in a position to know.
With several years left before the current EV gets its ground-up makeover, it appears Nissan will be closely watching the market and, in particular, how potential buyers view the Leaf name. If it doesn’t register well, it’s very possible, if not likely, Nissan will toss it out and opt for an alternative badge, whether Chill-Out or something entirely new.