Opinion: Ford’s F-150 Lightning is Just What the EV Market Needs

When the first Ford F-150 Lightning rolls off the assembly line at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center near Detroit today it will join a growing list of new battery-electric vehicles. By my estimate, there’ll be as many as 60 on the road by the end of 2022, more than triple the count last year.

But Ford’s new pickup isn’t just another BEV. It’s the spark the market needs to bring battery technology into the mainstream, connecting with potential buyers that hardly glance at earlier models like the Tesla Model S, Chevrolet Bolt or Volkswagen ID.4.

“Those vehicles still appeal to the early adopter community,” suggested Sam Abuelsamid, the principal auto analyst at Guidehouse Insights. “This is the first BEV to really move into the mainstream market.”

A familiar badge

Archrival General Motors actually beat Ford into showrooms with its new GMC Hummer EV — as did Rivian with the R1T, both going on sale late in 2021. But those two models are anything but mainstream. Ford, on the other hand, specifically chose to use the familiar F-150 badge for its new truck and largely retained the same, basic design cues as the rest of that pickup line.

The broader F-Series has been, of course, America’s best-selling nameplate for 40 straight years — and the number one pickup for 45. Even after the production cuts suffered last year due to the semiconductor shortage, Ford managed to sell 726,004 F-Series pickups in 2021, far surpassing next-in-line models like the Ram 1500 and Chevrolet Silverado.

And where pickups were once the purview of farmers and contractors, they’ve today become mainstream vehicles, nearly as commonplace in the New York suburbs as on Texas ranches. If you were simply to go by average transaction price, industry data reveal the F-Series to be the best-selling luxury vehicle in America. And you certainly can outfit it like one, with upgraded trims like the Platinum, King Ranch and Limited loaded with leather, wood and the latest technologies.

In the automotive market, familiarity typically brings comfort, rather than contempt. Making the switch to an all-electric version of the truck becomes that much easier when there seems little to sacrifice and plenty to gain. At up to 7,700 pounds, Lightning has more than enough towing capacity for most pickup buyers, and its range of as much as 320 miles is significantly better than many of the new battery-electric sedans and SUVs now coming to market.

Plenty of advantages

For contractors and other commercial users — a potentially huge market Ford is targeting — the real plus will be operating costs. Fill up the tank on a conventional F-150 and you’re waving goodbye to more than $100 these days — nearly $200 in parts of California where gas has topped $6 a gallon. Maintenance costs also promise to be lower.

Ford certainly got a helping hand when it rolled out the Lightning last year, then-new President Joe Biden taking one out for a quick spin during a visit to Detroit. Even in an era where absolutely everything is politicized, the pickup seems able to bridge the aisle, drawing interest from all corners of the political spectrum.

While Ford officials clearly hoped to generate interest in the Lightning, they were shocked by what happened. In a conversation last autumn, CEO Jim Farley told me he had “no idea” the truck would catch on as strongly as it has. The automaker is now racing to find ways to meet demand.

Catching up with demand

Initially, it had expected to move perhaps 25,000 a year. That jumped to 40,000 as the initial reservations came in, recalls analyst Abuelsamid, then 80,000. Now, Ford is boosting the capacity of the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to handle 150,000 a year — yet still doesn’t expect to meet initial demand until late 2023. It also gained the confidence to move ahead with Blue Oval City, the 5-square-mile manufacturing complex near Memphis that will handle the next-generation Lightning when it goes into production mid-decade.

Ford’s first long-range battery-electric vehicle, the Mustang Mach-E, currently ranks as the best-selling BEV not built by Tesla. The Lightning appears poised to tighten up the race even more.

I spend a significant chunk of my time on the road testing new vehicles. More and more of these are battery powered these days. What I find intriguing is the response when the new Lightning comes up in conversation. With rare exception, I find that even Ford’s most bitter competitors are pleased with its apparent success.

Going mainstream

“Right now, it’s all about taking EVs into the mainstream,” said a senior GM official who asked not to be identified by name. A big hit, he explained, helps everyone, by convincing American motorists that battery power is real, competitive and hear to stay. “We’ll have plenty of time to compete later,” he concluded, as EVs take over the market.

And compete they will in the pickup segment. By my count there will be as many as a dozen or more offerings around mid-decade from Ford, GMC, Chevrolet, Ram, Toyota, Nissan, Rivian, Tesla, Atlis, even Kia and possibly Volkswagen.

Ford still has to prove the production F-150 Lightning can deliver on expectations. Among other things, the automaker has to ensure the truck doesn’t suffer the launch quality snags experienced by the latest generation Explorer a couple years ago. Indeed, it will need to prove it can build a much higher quality vehicle than Tesla which lags at the bottom of the pack, according to J.D. Power, Consumer Reports and other analysts.

I certainly hope it delivers for, in full disclosure, my wife and I have a 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning on order and are expecting to take delivery sometime in June — if the rollout remains on schedule. (And for those who might wonder: we are paying full list price.)